A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
