Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
